UFC "BATTLE ON THE BAYOU" PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight predictions for Shields vs. Ellenberger event on Spike
By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
The UFC and Bud Light present the "Battle on the Bayou" tomorrow night on Spike TV, live from New Orleans, La. Also known as UFC Fight Night 25, the event brings four live fights to Spike in what will essentially be the final "Fight Night" event on the network before the UFC moves to Fox and FX (Spike will air two more UFC events in 2011, though one is a numbered card in UFC 138 and one a TUF finale in December). With two TUF winners, the return of middleweight Alan Belcher and a good welterweight matchup in the main event, the card has plenty to tune in for despite some lax promotion from the UFC. Still, there are fights on the docket, and plenty will tune in, so here's what's on tap tomorrow night: Jake Shields vs. Jake Ellenberger (Welterweight) This is a top flight welterweight bout between two excellent fighters in the division, but the hype for the event as a whole hasn't really inspired much excitement. A lot of that comes down to both fighters talking down one another, with Shields not thinking much of Ellenberger's overall game and Ellenberger feeling the same way about Shields. But despite the low level of anticipation as a whole for the fight, it's a great stylistic matchup and a very interesting fight. Shields' grappling is fantastic, that's an absolute given. He can be relentless with his work to bring his opponents to the ground, and when he's there he's great at looking for submissions and working his position game. Ellenberger is a very good striker with a good wrestling game to go along with that. However, despite the wrestling background he brings with him to the Octagon, he's content to slug things out on the feet and has shown a propensity to deliver punishing blows against his opponents. The fight will really be determined by which fighter is able to implement their gameplan on the other. Ellenberger will look to stuff takedown attempts from Shields and out-strike him standing, while Shields will be out to keep this fight on the ground and try to stop Ellenberger there. There's more to this fight, however, as Shields enters just a month after the death of his father and manager. The unknown "X" factor in this bout is where he's at mentally and how he handles this first fight without his father by his side. This is a difficult matchup for both fighters. Shields has faced the tougher competition throughout his career, but Ellenberger is the one coming into this fight on a win streak and with the type of striking and wrestling game that can offset Shields' strengths. This is a really tough fight to call, and both fighters are fully capable of defeating the other, but I'm going to lean slightly towards Shields to hold on for a decision win. PREDICTION: Shields via unanimous decision Court McGee vs. Dongi Yang (Middleweight) McGee and Yang are each one loss fighters heading into this event, though they've got very different styles and have taken different routes to their current positions on this card. McGee won the 11th season of the Ultimate Fighter despite a decision loss during his time on the show to Nick Ring. He came back as an injury replacement and made it to the finals, where he submitted Kris McCray. After notching a second submission win in the Octagon last October, McGee was expected to get back in the cage in June, but an injury delayed his return. South Korean middleweight Yang spent most of his career in his home country and Japan before debuting in the UFC in 2010, where he lost for the first time by split decision to Chris Camozzi. In his return bout in March, Yang took out Rob Kimmons by TKO, his ninth career stoppage victory by strikes. McGee has shown off a great ability to persevere through rough spots in fights, most noticeably in his bout with Ryan Jensen, and while he'll take some punishment in a fight, he's hard to put away and has only lost once by decision. The layoff factor for McGee could swing this in Yang's favor, but I'll take the Ultimate Fighter winner to eke out his third straight win. PREDICTION: McGee via unanimous decision. Jonathan Brookins vs. Erik Koch (Featherweight) This is a fantastic matchup at 145 lbs., especially for free TV. After winning the 12th season of The Ultimate Fighter, Brookins moves back to featherweight after a training injury kept him out of action for the last nine months. Koch comes into the fight off of three straight wins and a knockout of Raphael Assuncao in his UFC debut in March. Brookins has not shown a great striking game thus far, but he's been able to make up for that with a very good ground game and the ability to bring the fight there more often than not. He hasn't lost since a third round TKO against current UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo, a fight that took place in 2008, and he's got a knack for finding a finishing submission hold if the opening is there. Koch is an extremely talented striker, and working under Duke Roufus in Milwaukee has improved that aspect of his game tremendously, but amazingly he enters this fight with seven submission wins to only three by knockout. While Brookins is talented and continuously improving, Koch - at only 22 years old - is rising up the featherweight ranks quickly for a reason. He's wholly capable of stopping a fight on his feet or on the ground, and that combination of dangerous striking and submission skills very much gives him the edge in this fight. PREDICTION: Koch via TKO in the first round Alan Belcher vs. Jason MacDonald (Middleweight) Belcher returns to action in this fight for the first time since suffering a detached retina last year that nearly ended his career. MacDonald knows a little something about serious injuries himself, having suffered a nasty broken leg in the first round of his fight with John Salter in May of 2010 that kept him out of the cage for nearly a year in his own right. Prior to the injury setback, Belcher was on the rise in the middleweight division, having won four of five fights (the sole loss in that stretch coming by split decision in a fight many felt he won against Yoshihiro Akiyama). A fairly well rounded fighter, Belcher is comfortable standing and on the ground, with highlight wins both by knockout and submission during his time in the UFC. MacDonald's best attribute is his ground game, though he has also delivered TKO and submission highlights in the UFC as well. There are a couple of factors that influence how this fight might play out. Belcher has wins over a higher level of competition than MacDonald, and has had more success overall in the UFC, but with being out for 16 months and having his career nearly come to an end, there will be questions to be answered in regards to his conditioning and cage rust. Overall, for as much as I enjoy watching both fighters in the cage, Belcher has been the better fighter as of late, and if he can shake off the cage rust and not fade in this fight, I absolutely give him the edge. PREDICTION: Belcher via TKO in the second round ======Facebook Preliminary Card Stream Quick Picks====== * Cody McKenzie over Vagner Rocha via submission in the first round
* Evan Dunham over Shamar Bailey via submission in the second round
* Lance Benoist over Matt Riddle via TKO in the second round
* Donny Walker over Ken Stone via TKO in the first round
* Seth Baczynski over Clay Harvison via TKO in the first round
* T.J. Waldburger over Mike Stumpf via unanimous decision
* Robert Peralta over Mike Lullo via TKO in the third round
* Jorge Lopez over Justin Edwards via TKO in the second round
|
* Evan Dunham over Shamar Bailey via submission in the second round
* Lance Benoist over Matt Riddle via TKO in the second round
* Donny Walker over Ken Stone via TKO in the first round
* Seth Baczynski over Clay Harvison via TKO in the first round
* T.J. Waldburger over Mike Stumpf via unanimous decision
* Robert Peralta over Mike Lullo via TKO in the third round
* Jorge Lopez over Justin Edwards via TKO in the second round
Source: http://www.mmatorch.com/artman2/publish/penickstake/article_10518.shtml