UFC 124 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and predictions for St. Pierre vs. Koscheck event in Montreal
By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
Saturday's UFC 124 event from the Bell Centre in Montreal features one of the most anticipated headlining bouts of 2010, as Georges St. Pierre once again defends his Welterweight Championship in a bout against old foe and TUF 12 opposing coach, Josh Koscheck. Though the rest of the main card is lacking in star power, that's not to say the event will be lacking in action. Let's get to the fights! Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck (UFC Welterweight Championship) This welterweight rematch has been one of the most effectively promoted fights of the year for the UFC. The fight has been seen once before when the two met in 2007 at UFC 74, but as both have been quick to point out, they are very different fighters than when that fight took place over three years ago. For Georges St. Pierre, the first Josh Koscheck fight represented the beginning of this chapter of his career. He had been defeated by Matt Serra just four and a half months prior in one of the biggest upsets in the history of the sport, and UFC 74 marked an opportunity to beging erasing the memory of that loss to Serra. He defeated Koscheck by clear decision, winning all three rounds of the bout on one of the judges scorecards. In fact, the one round he lost to Koscheck in that fight on two judges scorecards was the last time St. Pierre lost a round. And he's won six fights since their first meeting. Koscheck's had a rockier road on his way to this rematch, and what will be his first ever title fight in the UFC. He got back on track in early 2008 with consecutive wins over Dustin Hazelett and Chris Lytle, but a late notice fight with Thiago Alves in October of that year saw him drop a decision. A knockout win over Yoshiyuki Yoshida in December, his fourth of the year, sent him into 2009 on a high note. However, Koscheck was brought right back down to earth, as UFC newcomer Paulo Thiago connected on a huge uppercut in the first round of their bout at UFC 95 in February, and the flash knockout caused the fight to be stopped. Stoppage wins over Frank Trigg and Anthony Johnson in 2009 brought him to a #1 contender bout with Brit Paul Daley, however, and he earned his title shot with a unanimous decision win. Both fighters bring an improved overall game into this matchup, but St. Pierre remains the most well rounded fighter in the sport. While Koscheck's wrestling game is his strength, and his pedigree in that discipline is higher than that of St. Pierre, GSP was able to out-wrestle him in the first fight, which allowed him to win the fight. This fight is going to be a different case. Koscheck's much more conscious of St. Pierre's takedown ability, and his defense will be much improved from that first fight. On that same token, Koscheck's wrestling game, while excellent, is still not a guarantee that he'll be able to take St. Pierre down in this fight. St. Pierre's takedown defense is an under-appreciated part of his game, because he simply hasn't had to fight a wrestler all that often in recent years. The last pedigreed wrestler that he faced was Jon Fitch in 2008, and in that fight he kept himself upright and picked Fitch apart in one of the more brutal five round beatings ever delivered in the Octagon. The Champ likes to say that his style is dictated by the opponent he's facing. The first time he met Koscheck, he knew that Koscheck wasn't going to respect his wrestling game, and he was able to surprise Koscheck with just how adept his takedown and grappling game was. This time around, Koscheck is expecting St. Pierre to bring the same type of gameplan to this fight. He wants to stop GSP's takedowns and feels his striking game will be better than that of the Champion, and he'll attempt to out-strike St. Pierre en route to a knockout victory in this fight. The problem with that strategy and that expectation of what St. Pierre is planning is that it may be false. St. Pierre fights to his opponent's weaknesses, and while Koscheck's striking game is improved there are holes and little mistakes he's shown in the past few fights that St. Pierre can take advantage of on the feet. GSP doesn't need to try to out-wrestle Koscheck in this fight, as he is more than capable of out-striking him, and that may be where he has an easier time anyway. This fight may wind up being a similar bout to the St. Pierre-Fitch fight, and St. Pierre's improved striking game with the help of Freddie Roach puts him firmly in control in this fight. Koscheck will score some punches, but this is the Champion's fight to lose, and he's not going to in Montreal. PREDICTION: St. Pierre via TKO in the third round
Stefan Struve vs. Sean McCorkle (Heavyweight) From a business standpoint, this is one of the weakest fights to find itself in the second to last slot on a UFC pay-per-view in a long time. But that doesn't mean it won't be entertaining. It's hard to judge McCorkle's upside after just one fight in the heavyweight division against Mark Hunt. Especially when it only lasted for a few minutes. He's undefeated, but his career was spent in the super heavyweight division up until his UFC debut, and the level of competition he faced in Indianapolis doesn't give any type of real barometer for his true level of talent and what he can do against the heavyweights in the UFC. As for Struve, the 6'11" 22-year-old has had an interesting career in the UFC thus far. Despite his young age, he's already won 20 fights in his career, four of which have come in the UFC. But even in victory, Struve has taken some serious damage in a number of those fights. In addition to quick KO/TKO losses to Junior Dos Santos and Roy Nelson, Struve has been beaten, bloodied or battered in fights against Dennis Stojnic, Paul Buentello and Christian Morecraft. In that last fight against Morecraft, he was knocked down and nearly finished in the first round before pulling off a miraculous knockout in the second round. This is a fight both fighters can win, and the odds have it at near a pick 'em bout heading in because of the unknown on McCorkle. Struve has simply faced a tougher level of competition, and despite his age has much more fight experience, and I think that's going to be the difference in this fight. PREDICTION: Struve via TKO in the second round
Jim Miller vs. Charles Oliveira (Lightweight) My second favorite fight on the card takes place between one of the most consistent performers in the UFC in Miller, and one of the most exciting prospects to debut in the UFC in quite some time in Oliveira. The undefeated Oliveira made a statement against Efrain Escudero at Fight Night 22 in September, winning by a highly impressive standing rear naked choke. That fight came after a 41 second arm bar submission over Darren Elkins in his UFC debut at UFC on Versus 2. In his 14 wins, all but one have come by way of TKO or submission. Miller, meanwhile, has only lost to current Champion Frankie Edgar and current #1 contender Gray Maynard, both by decision. That makes for quite the impressive resume, and he's won five straight fights heading into this bout. Miller's wrestling and jiu jitsu game are excellent. He was a NCAA Division 1 wrestler at Virginia Tech, and he's added a black belt in jiu jitsu on top of that. Though most of his UFC bouts have gone to a decision, his submission game is still very good as well. But Oliveira's submission game is excellent as well, and the brown belt in jiu jitsu made a career of finishing fighters in Brazil. This fight is another toss-up, but I lean towards the more experienced Miller and think he keeps himself on track towards an eventual title shot. If Oliveira can pull of the win, it will be one of the more impressive accomplishments on this card, and will be a big sign that he's nearly ready for a shot at the gold himself. But, I think he'll suffer a slight setback here, and will come back stronger in 2011. PREDICTION: Miller via unanimous decision
Joe Stevenson vs. Mac Danzig (Lightweight) These two winners of The Ultimate Fighter have not had the most success over the last few years of their careers. Stevenson, after getting to a title fight against B.J. Penn at the outset of 2008, has gone 3-3 since that bout at UFC 81. He bounced back from losses to Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez with consecutive wins over Nate Diaz and Spencer Fisher. However, in his last bout, Stevenson was defeated by George Sotiropoulos in February by unanimous decision at UFC 110 in Australia. Danzig's not had much success at all in the UFC since winning The Ultimate Fighter's sixth season. After a win over Mark Bocek, Danzig dropped three consecutive fights to Clay Guida, Josh Neer and Jim Miller before finally picking up a win over Justin Bucholz in February of this year. Danzig was then the victim of an early stoppage in his bout against Matt Wiman in June, as the bout was stopped from a submission hold despite no tap and him not being out. Stevenson is the better fighter in 2010. Despite his recent setbacks, his losses in the UFC, for the most part, have come against fighters making their way towards title shots. It has earned him "gatekeeper to the elite" status, and Danzig simply isn't elite. Stevenson should win this fight, and the loser of this one may be on thin ice in the packed lightweight division. PREDICTION: Stevenson via submission in the third round
Thiago Alves vs. John Howard (Welterweight) Alves is in desperate need to snap his two fight losing streak. Although they took place a year apart against two of the best in the division, Alves' decision losses to Georges St. Pierre and Jon Fitch, along with a seemingly chronic problem in making weight, will not give him much wiggle room should he make it three straight losses on Saturday. Howard is looking to rebound from his first loss in the UFC, suffered at the hands of Jake Ellenberger at UFC on Versus 2. In that bout, he had his eye closed from swelling, prompting doctors to stop the fight in the third round. Alves' striking and power are the game changers in this fight, and if he can impose his will on Howard he can finish this fight. Howard has had some tough fights and has faced some really tough opponents thus far, but I think Alves is still one of the better fighters in the division. Now that he's not coming off of a lengthy layoff, and he made weight without an issue unlike in August, this fight is his for the taking. PREDICTION: Alves via TKO in the second round
=====PRELIMINARY CARD QUICK PICKS===== * Dustin Hazelett over Mark Bocek via submission in the second round * Dan Miller over Joe Doerksen via submission in the first round * Rafael Natal over Jesse Bongfeldt via submission in the third round * Matt Riddle over Sean Pierson via TKO in the second round * T.J. Grant over Ricardo Almeida via unanimous decision * John Makdessi over Pat Audinwood via TKO in the second round
=====BETTING CONTEST PICKS===== * $500 on Jim Miller * $300 on Hazelett * $200 on Grant
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Stefan Struve vs. Sean McCorkle (Heavyweight) From a business standpoint, this is one of the weakest fights to find itself in the second to last slot on a UFC pay-per-view in a long time. But that doesn't mean it won't be entertaining. It's hard to judge McCorkle's upside after just one fight in the heavyweight division against Mark Hunt. Especially when it only lasted for a few minutes. He's undefeated, but his career was spent in the super heavyweight division up until his UFC debut, and the level of competition he faced in Indianapolis doesn't give any type of real barometer for his true level of talent and what he can do against the heavyweights in the UFC. As for Struve, the 6'11" 22-year-old has had an interesting career in the UFC thus far. Despite his young age, he's already won 20 fights in his career, four of which have come in the UFC. But even in victory, Struve has taken some serious damage in a number of those fights. In addition to quick KO/TKO losses to Junior Dos Santos and Roy Nelson, Struve has been beaten, bloodied or battered in fights against Dennis Stojnic, Paul Buentello and Christian Morecraft. In that last fight against Morecraft, he was knocked down and nearly finished in the first round before pulling off a miraculous knockout in the second round. This is a fight both fighters can win, and the odds have it at near a pick 'em bout heading in because of the unknown on McCorkle. Struve has simply faced a tougher level of competition, and despite his age has much more fight experience, and I think that's going to be the difference in this fight. PREDICTION: Struve via TKO in the second round
Jim Miller vs. Charles Oliveira (Lightweight) My second favorite fight on the card takes place between one of the most consistent performers in the UFC in Miller, and one of the most exciting prospects to debut in the UFC in quite some time in Oliveira. The undefeated Oliveira made a statement against Efrain Escudero at Fight Night 22 in September, winning by a highly impressive standing rear naked choke. That fight came after a 41 second arm bar submission over Darren Elkins in his UFC debut at UFC on Versus 2. In his 14 wins, all but one have come by way of TKO or submission. Miller, meanwhile, has only lost to current Champion Frankie Edgar and current #1 contender Gray Maynard, both by decision. That makes for quite the impressive resume, and he's won five straight fights heading into this bout. Miller's wrestling and jiu jitsu game are excellent. He was a NCAA Division 1 wrestler at Virginia Tech, and he's added a black belt in jiu jitsu on top of that. Though most of his UFC bouts have gone to a decision, his submission game is still very good as well. But Oliveira's submission game is excellent as well, and the brown belt in jiu jitsu made a career of finishing fighters in Brazil. This fight is another toss-up, but I lean towards the more experienced Miller and think he keeps himself on track towards an eventual title shot. If Oliveira can pull of the win, it will be one of the more impressive accomplishments on this card, and will be a big sign that he's nearly ready for a shot at the gold himself. But, I think he'll suffer a slight setback here, and will come back stronger in 2011. PREDICTION: Miller via unanimous decision
Joe Stevenson vs. Mac Danzig (Lightweight) These two winners of The Ultimate Fighter have not had the most success over the last few years of their careers. Stevenson, after getting to a title fight against B.J. Penn at the outset of 2008, has gone 3-3 since that bout at UFC 81. He bounced back from losses to Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez with consecutive wins over Nate Diaz and Spencer Fisher. However, in his last bout, Stevenson was defeated by George Sotiropoulos in February by unanimous decision at UFC 110 in Australia. Danzig's not had much success at all in the UFC since winning The Ultimate Fighter's sixth season. After a win over Mark Bocek, Danzig dropped three consecutive fights to Clay Guida, Josh Neer and Jim Miller before finally picking up a win over Justin Bucholz in February of this year. Danzig was then the victim of an early stoppage in his bout against Matt Wiman in June, as the bout was stopped from a submission hold despite no tap and him not being out. Stevenson is the better fighter in 2010. Despite his recent setbacks, his losses in the UFC, for the most part, have come against fighters making their way towards title shots. It has earned him "gatekeeper to the elite" status, and Danzig simply isn't elite. Stevenson should win this fight, and the loser of this one may be on thin ice in the packed lightweight division. PREDICTION: Stevenson via submission in the third round
Thiago Alves vs. John Howard (Welterweight) Alves is in desperate need to snap his two fight losing streak. Although they took place a year apart against two of the best in the division, Alves' decision losses to Georges St. Pierre and Jon Fitch, along with a seemingly chronic problem in making weight, will not give him much wiggle room should he make it three straight losses on Saturday. Howard is looking to rebound from his first loss in the UFC, suffered at the hands of Jake Ellenberger at UFC on Versus 2. In that bout, he had his eye closed from swelling, prompting doctors to stop the fight in the third round. Alves' striking and power are the game changers in this fight, and if he can impose his will on Howard he can finish this fight. Howard has had some tough fights and has faced some really tough opponents thus far, but I think Alves is still one of the better fighters in the division. Now that he's not coming off of a lengthy layoff, and he made weight without an issue unlike in August, this fight is his for the taking. PREDICTION: Alves via TKO in the second round
=====PRELIMINARY CARD QUICK PICKS===== * Dustin Hazelett over Mark Bocek via submission in the second round * Dan Miller over Joe Doerksen via submission in the first round * Rafael Natal over Jesse Bongfeldt via submission in the third round * Matt Riddle over Sean Pierson via TKO in the second round * T.J. Grant over Ricardo Almeida via unanimous decision * John Makdessi over Pat Audinwood via TKO in the second round
=====BETTING CONTEST PICKS===== * $500 on Jim Miller * $300 on Hazelett * $200 on Grant
Source: http://www.mmatorch.com/artman2/publish/UFC_2/article_7802.shtml
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