ENNIS: The implications of UFC 126 moving forward and event predictions

By: Shawn Ennis, MMATorch Senior Columnist

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This Saturday's UFC 126 card has more meaningful fights than any card in recent memory. And of course, when something like this happens, it's time to make some predictions about fallout. Let's have a look at some of the storylines and what it all means right now, before the action starts.

Which Silva and Belfort Will We See?

Rarely does a title fight have so many implications outside of the title itself. In his last performance, Anderson Silva was dominated like we've never seen by a guy that no one expected to do so. The last time we saw Silva as his devastating, dominating self was August of 2009, when he clowned Forrest Griffin. So what happens with the champ this weekend? Is he getting old? Was he just hurt in the last fight? Does he just have a problem with wrestlers? At least a couple of these questions look to be answered on Saturday.

And what of Belfort? "The Phenom" hasn't fought since blasting Rich Franklin at UFC 103. History has shown us that cage rust exists, and it can be a major factor. Will it affect Belfort? Not to mention, Belfort is a bit of a Brazilian version of B.J. Penn in that you always wonder which Vitor will show up. It hasn't happened so much recently because he's been blowing through everyone, but it doesn't seem all that long ago when a sluggish Belfort was losing handily to Alistair Overeem in lackluster affairs. The fact that Belfort doesn't have any actual fights in the UFC at middleweight doesn't concern me all that much. I don't think it's going to be a problem for him to make weight as he's done it multiple times before.

The fact is that this is a big pressure fight for both men. If Belfort is blown out, it's a major blow to his credibility. The fact is that it really shouldn't be, because when Silva is on his game (especially on the feet where this fight will almost certainly play out), he is a major destructive force. But Belfort's lack of UFC middleweight resume and his uneven history could play a part in how a loss is perceived. And if Silva loses in spectacular fashion (and again, both fighters have a penchant for finishing spectacularly when they're on) the book will be that he's aging out. There will be unwarranted calls for retirement. People will say that his time is over. His reign of terror will immediately be pushed into the history books by those who want to make everything out of one fight.

This fight is truly a wild card. While it's certainly possible that either fighter could end it in the first round, I don't see it playing out like that. I think you'll see a first round with both men feeling each other out, followed by some flurries at the end. It will get progressively more intense with each passing round, and each fighter will get his before Silva ends it with a submission in the fourth. Maybe I'm just hoping too much, but I think we could have a classic on our hands here.

Which Former Champ Has More in the Tank?

Forrest Griffin is only 31 years old, but you'd never know it by the way he talks. It could just be his interview personality, and maybe I'm reading too much into that, but Griffin doesn't sound like a guy who's looking to make another run at the title. He sounds like someone who just wants a few more fights and can hopefully pick up some wins to keep his marketability. Griffin hasn't fought since squeaking out a split decision victory over Tito Ortiz in November of 2009, so he's another one that could be fighting against cage rust on Saturday. All that having been said, the former Light Heavyweight kingpin is still relevant in the weight class, and with his 1-2 record in his last three fights coupled with his 15-month absence from the cage, he'll need a win against Franklin to remain that way.

Rich Franklin has looked good at light heavyweight since he debuted there in 2008. Until now, he's fought veterans like Wanderlei Silva and Chuck Liddell and been mostly successful (I thought he won the fight against Henderson), but this will be the first time at 205 and not 195 pounds that he fights a contender. Franklin isn't at the top of the light heavyweight division like he was in middleweight, but he would take a big step toward that realm if he can take out Griffin.

Even though Franklin is five years older than Griffin and probably won't be around for as long as his opponent, I see him taking a decision in this one, which should be a really good scrap. Look for both guys to score on the feet without much happening on the mat.

Who is the Future?

Jon Jones is one of the more electrifying fighters we've seen come along in quite some time. The hype train is running strong, and not since Cain Velasquez burst on the heavyweight scene have we heard coaches gush about how this guy is the next big thing. Will Jones have the same success that the Heavyweight Champ has found? This will be the first big litmus test. Bader is the prototype for the kind of fighter to derail Jones' hype. He's a big grinder who uses his wrestling to wear down foes, and he's got a punch or two in his arsenal that can end an opponent's night.

The thing about Jones is that the way he talks, you can tell he's ready. He's spoken numerous times about how he watches Bader's fights constantly and knows his tendencies. While Bader has improved over his time with the UFC, and though he's got a promising future, I don't think he's ready for Jon Jones. He just doesn't have the arsenal to compete with what Jones brings to the table. Bader's wrestling might keep him alive for a little bit, but Jones's reach and striking prowess will win the day here. I think the hype train rolls on for "Bones" after he crushes Bader in the first round. It will not be pretty.

What About the Bantamweights?

If this division had a bigger profile, the two fights at 135 pounds would have to be on the main card. Luckily, at least one of them is. Miguel Torres, coming off of his quality win over Charlie Valencia at WEC 51, is fighting to stay in the hunt. Antonio Banuelos is looking to make the leap. A Torres win could potentially set up the biggest fight the division has to offer ? a showdown with Urijah Faber. That fight would ostensibly be for a title shot against the sidelined Dominic Cruz, and with the unavoidably awesome buildup, it would put the smallest weight class in the UFC on the map. I'm getting ahead of myself here, which is never a good sign, but I'm still going to pick Torres in this one by submission in the third after a back-and-forth couple of rounds.

Elsewhere in the division, Norifumi "KID" Yamamoto just would not be buried on unaired prelims after Dana White was bombarded with requests to see the debuting once-superstar take on Demetrius Johnson. As you've heard, this will be streamed on the UFC's Facebook page, and you should definitely check it out. It's true that Yamamoto hasn't looked like his old self since he took two years off from 2007-2009, but if there's anything that can spark rejuvenation for the man who dazzled fight fans for so long, it's a debut on the world's now-biggest stage. If you haven't seen Yamamoto's run through K-1 Hero's, you're deprived and you need to seek that out right now. It's must-see stuff.

If you look around the MMA sites, you'll see most declaring that Yamamoto's time is past. I'm hesitant to declare that just yet. Demetrious Johnson is not to be overlooked, and the Octagon jitters are certainly real, so I'm going to give it two UFC fights before I make my decision on whether Yamamoto has got anything left to offer. That having been said, I'm going to go with Johnson by decision here, which is the pick that my head is telling me to take. You'd better believe, though, that I'll be rooting for a return to form by "KID."

What About the WEC Lightweights?

Donald Cerrone will be the first lightweight from the WEC to test the shark-infested UFC waters this weekend. He certainly has no easy task ahead of him in Paul Kelly, who owns a 5-3 Octagon record. This should be a good litmus test for how the other lightweights from the defunct promotion will fare when it's their turn to debut. Cerrone was one of the top attractions on the smaller stage, and if he is blown out by a mid-tier lightweight like Kelly, it certainly doesn't bode well for his counterparts. This one is tough to call on the surface, but I'm going to go with Cerrone to pull victory from the jaws of defeat with a third round submission after being bullied for most of the fight.

Final Word

I'm going to put my superfan hat on here for a second. If you're a fan of MMA, you cannot miss this card. Do what you have to do, but don't miss it. This is the kind of lineup that cannot possibly miss. Even if there are one or two clunkers (and on paper there are none), there's no way there won't be at least one or two great fights. On top of the awesomeness that is sure to pour from your TV screen, pretty much every fight has implications within its weight division. I didn't even mention Ellenberger-Rocha or Mendes-Omigawa, but neither of them (especially the latter) are just thrown out there for laughs. There will be some restructuring of the rankings after this weekend to be sure, and I'll be back afterwards to tell you what to think about it.

To contact me, shoot me an email at ennistorch(at)gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @shawnennis. No, I haven't tweeted in forever, but maybe I will, and if I do it'll be something awesome.

Source: http://www.mmatorch.com/artman2/publish/Ennistake/article_8365.shtml

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