UFC 133: By the Odds

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Tito OrtizTito Ortiz seemed to take pleasure in making the sportsbooks bleed when he shocked everyone in Las Vegas, but how many more surprises does he have left in him?

And will Vitor Belfort bounce all the way back from his loss to Anderson Silva, or is a part of him still worried about the Steven Seagal special that's always just out of his field of vision, yet constantly rushing toward his chin?

To answer these questions and more, let's examine how oddsmakers see the action at UFC 133 going down.

Rashad Evans (-400) vs. Tito Ortiz (+300)

The Ortiz bandwagon may have picked up a lot of new passengers at its last stop, but oddsmakers seem to be keeping their expectations realistic. It's not hard to see why. Ortiz's win over Ryan Bader was over almost as soon as it began, so there's not much of a scouting report to base this comeback narrative on. The best thing Ortiz has going for him is the fact that Evans hasn't fought in over a year. Who knows, "Suga" might be as rusty now as "Rampage" Jackson was when he beat him last May. If not, you have to give Evans the edge in speed, athleticism, wrestling ability, power -- everything, basically. So what does Ortiz have? How does he win this and enable you to cash in on the underdog bet you missed in his last go-round? I don't know, intangibles maybe?
My pick: Evans. It's a parlay pick all the way, but I just don't see Ortiz pulling off another upset. said the same thing when he fought Bader, though...




Vitor Belfort (-370) vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (+280)

Let's not kid ourselves, we know who Belfort is by this point. He's the guy who's hell on wheels in the first three minutes of any fight, but whose chances of victory fade in the later rounds. It's as if he's always waiting to find out whether he's going to win or not. By the time he hears the words, 'round two,' he starts to wonder. By round three he's downright doubtful. The question is, can Akiyama take him there without first taking too much punishment? Akiyama needs this one worse than Belfort does, but he probably lacks the finishing power to actually put "The Phenom" away. A decision is his best bet, but it won't favor him if he spends the early going getting knocked around by the faster, more explosive Brazilian. Can he stay competitive long enough to exploit Belfort's weakness in the later rounds? That's the big money question.
My pick: Akiyama. You know what? Let's get crazy. In straight-up picks, you have to go with Belfort, but at nearly 3-1 Akiyama is a decent enough underdog to warrant small action. Who else is feeling financially reckless? Right? Guys?

Jorge Rivera (-155) vs. Constantinos Philippou (+125)

I'm not entirely sure what's making this line as close as it is. Are oddsmakers unable to look past Rivera's recent loss to Michael Bisping, or do they see something in Philippou that the rest of us don't? Not that he sucks, mind you. But he lost to the fairly mediocre Nick Catone at UFC 128, and before that got submitted during the elimination phase of TUF 11. Maybe he's still a work in progress, but he's up against a vet here. Going from Alessio Sakara to Philippou, Rivera didn't have to adjust his preparation or game plan too much in the final weeks. He's basically getting a less dangerous, less experienced version of Sakara here. It's his fight to lose, and at this point in his career he can't afford to give away fights like this.
My pick: Rivera. It's another one for the parlay, but there's at least some chance to capitalize on line that's closer than it ought to be.

Brian Ebersole (-110) vs. Dennis Hallman (-120)

Few people are talking about it, but this might be the toughest fight to pick on the entire card. Here we have two savvy vets, both doing better than the UFC likely thought they would, and it's hard to say what we should expect from either. Often Hallman's approach against bigger, taller fighters has been to spend the entire fight in the clinch or on the mat, suffocating and frustrating them. That's not likely to work against Ebersole, but then again Ebersole is always at least somewhat likely to goof around enough that he misses a key opportunity or two. Still, after his surprise win over Chris Lytle, Ebersole has to know that this is one of those strike-while-the-iron-is-hot moments.
My pick: Ebersole. His size and durability will prove problematic for Hallman, but it's going to be close.

Rory MacDonald (-300) vs. Mike Pyle (+230)

I know nobody wants to bet against the wiz kid MacDonald, and the odds reflect that, but let's stop and think for a moment. The last time Pyle fought one of the UFC's much-hyped youngsters was when he faced John Hathaway at UFC 120. He ran all over the kid and took the surprise decision, thanks mostly to his superiority on the mat. Is it so unreasonable to think he could do the same to MacDonald? Okay, so MacDonald is more well-rounded and probably just a better athlete than Hathaway, but don't underestimate the value of Pyle's experience. He's not going to be intimidated by a hard-charging kid with backne, and he's got just the right amount of mean streak to relish an opportunity to smash an up-and-comer and surprise the oddsmakers.
My pick: Pyle. I don't know what it is, but I see an underdog with an edge in experience and straight-up meanness, and I can't stay away. I tell you, it will be my undoing for sure.

Quick picks:

- Alexander Gustafsson (-170) over Matt Hamill (+140). Gustafsson is nastier than a lot of people realize. If Hamill can't keep him on his back -- and I doubt he can -- he's in for three rounds of facial reconstruction.

- Mike Pierce (+115) over Johny Hendricks (-145). Hendricks has been beating up on a lot of guys with serious deficiencies in the wrestling department, but that's not Pierce. He's tough, durable, and has honed his finishing skills of late.

The 'For Entertainment Purposes Only' Parlay:
Evans + Rivera + Ebersole + Gustafsson.

 

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Source: http://mmafighting.com/2011/08/05/ufc-133-by-the-odds/

Kenny Florian Jesse Forbes Xavier Foupa Pokam Hermes Franca

UFC 133: Yahoo! Sports and Heavy present Fight Day Live

Fight Day is back on August 6th with another star-studded UFC pre-show, live from the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA.  Hosts Dave Farra and Megan Olivi will welcome UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar to the set for a live interview.  Also appearing live on set is the always controversial middleweight contender, Chael Sonnen.  Fight Day will also sit down with a pair of UFC 133 fighters.  First, a revealing discussion with main event participant Rashad Evans, where he will discuss the roller coaster that has been his life over the last 18 months.  There will also be an inside look into Vitor Belfort's training camp that shows how the former champion plans to rebound from his crushing defeat at the hands (or foot) of Anderson Silva.  Throw in a panel of MMA experts to break down all of the night's fights and you've got 60 minutes of programming you don't want to miss. Fight Day airs live from UFC 133 at 5pm EDT/2pm PDT.

Also, Heavy will give away a pair of tickets to UFC 133. Head to their Facebook page for more information

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/blog/cagewriter/post/UFC-133-Yahoo-Sports-and-Heavy-present-Fight-D?urn=mma-wp5315

Ken Shamrock Sean Sherk Katsuyori Shibata Jake Shields

Joe Stevenson Cut From UFC

Cut day continues for Zuffa, LLC. According to MMAFighting, Joe Stevenson has been released by the UFC. It’s not as though the company didn’t give “Daddy” every opportunity to stick around, as they finally decided to show the 29-year-old the door after he lost his fourth consecutive scrap. Most fighters get handed their pink slip [...]

Source: http://www.5thRound.com/84080/joe-stevenson-cut-from-ufc/

Genki Sudo Amar Suloev Mike Swick Takashi Sugiura

Dana White cites differences in business practices for mass release of Golden Glory fighters

By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

WhiteDana_WK150_150.jpg

As had been reported in some areas, the UFC's reasoning for releasing several Golden Glory fighters came down to a difference in business practices. Marloes Coenen, Valentijn Overeem and Jon Olav Einemo joined Alistair Overeem in being released from Zuffa this week, and UFC President Dana White said on Thursday that their reasoning for the cuts is pretty clear.

"This is actually a pretty simple explanation," White told reporters after the UFC 133 pre-fight press conference. "If you look back throughout history, we haven't had any Golden Glory guys fight with us since Semmy Schilt, right? And the reason is, we have very different business practices. It's tough to do business with them.

"The bottom line is, the way that they do business is, you have to pay them, not the fighters. We don't work that way. It's not the way we do business. It's not how it works here in the United States with the athletic commissions. You don't pay the managers and the managers pay the fighters. You pay the fighters and the fighters pay the managers."

For her part, Coenen told ESPN's Josh Gross that being paid by Golden Glory is how she preferred it for tax reasons, and that's precisely why they do things the way they do, but White says that simply isn't how they're going to do business. And in the case of Einemo, they played it the UFC's way and allowed him to be paid directly, but in losing his fight and them having overall difficulties with Golden Glory, he found himself on the chopping block.

"We can't do business with those guys the way that they do it," White reiterated. "There's a lot of places throughout the world they can do business like that; it's not a big deal for the promoters. We can't do it. It's not right. It's not the right way to do it."

"Well, the reality is, we're trying to work out these deals with these guys and they won't do it. They said, 'You absolutely cannot pay the fighters. You have to pay us.' Like I said, it's pretty simple to look back. The last guy to fight in UFC was Semmy Schilt, that was a Golden Glory guy. There's a reason for that."

Golden Glory has one remaining fighter on Zuffa's roster in Sergei Kharitonov, who will meet Josh Barnett in the semifinals of the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix in September. White said they are honoring his deal because his fights in the Grand Prix have him being paid directly, but when it comes back to negotiating for another deal it will likely mark the end of his run in the organization.

Penick's Analysis: The issue of paying the management team directly and having them pay the fighters, when it's clearly an issue of avoiding certain taxes, doesn't have a great ring to it for the UFC. Strikeforce went along with it, which is why disclosed payrolls for Golden Glory fighters were extremely low on many occasions. The UFC is taking a hard line stance and on a company-wide case they're not making exceptions on it. If Golden Glory refused to go along with that, it ultimately may have hurt their fighters and the paydays they could have received in Zuffa-owned organizations. Still, they'll have places to fight, there will be money to be made, they just won't be seen in the UFC or Strikeforce unless and until they change their stance on certain things.

Source: http://www.mmatorch.com/artman2/publish/UFC_2/article_10082.shtml

Robert Berry David Bielkheden Michael BispingĀ  Dan Bobish

Dana White Details Split With Alistair Overeem, Golden Glory Fighters

Chilling at the pub and wondering what your fav beer is?

Mine is a Swedish beer called Mariestads and also Carlsberg Hof. I like the after taste, it tastes like good weed. lol Im no expert on beers but since i like it and want to test some new ones i...

Source: http://ninjashoes.net/forum/showthread.php?75626-Chilling-at-the-pub-and-wondering-what-your-fav-beer-is&goto=newpost

Tarec Saffiedine Alessio Sakara Kazushi Gracie Hunter Sakuraba Hayato Sakurai

Dana White Cuts Fedor Emelianenko From Strikeforce ? Still Under Contract With Showtime

Fedor is out as a Strikeforce fighter, but he continues to be a Showtime fighter, according to Emelianenko’s management team. UFC president Dana White said today that the former undefeated PRIDE champion and Zuffa’s cage have parted ways following a third consecutive loss this past Saturday in Chicago. Fedor’s three fight losing streak, high priced paydays and [...]

Source: http://www.mmatko.com/dana-white-cuts-fedor-emelianenko-from-strikeforce-still-under-contract-with-showtime/

Tito Ortiz Alexander Otsuka Alistair Overeem Valentijn Overeem

Coker video: Is Overeem ever fighting again for Strikeforce?

This is a bizarre position for Scott Coker. The Strikeforce CEO is technically under the umbrella of Zuffa. In a recent interview with SI.com, Dana White swore up and down that he has absolutely no hand in decisions with Strikeforce. Yet when you watch or listen to Coker talking about the future of his fighters and future cards, there seems to be a hesitance about answering questions. That could be the nature of the business or he simply can't promise anything because its out of his hands.

Coker did a 12-minute interview with AOL.com and had some interesting takes on what comes down the road for Dan Henderson and Fedor Emelianenko. A small part of the convo revolved around Alistair Overeem and his future with Strikeforce.

"I mean that's something we're going to sit down with his manager Bas [Boon] and have a conversation about," said Coker (8:00 mark).

That's not a yes or a no, but it seemed pretty curt. White recently said Overeem is definitely sticking around so it was odd for Coker to ride the fence on the question.

Coker also explained that Overeem sort of forced the bold move in the Strikeforce heavyweight Grand Prix. When the Strikeforce heavyweight champ and tourney favorite said he was out for a fight on Sept. 10, Strikeforce had no choice but to replace him.

"We've been very good to Alistair. We've been very patient. It just didn't work out," Coker said. "If we could've took this fight to October or November we definitely would've done it."

Coker said between the busy UFC schedule, Showtime's boxing slate, the Floyd Mayweather fight in November and MLB's World Series, there weren't many dates that made sense.

On other matters, Coker said Fedor vs. Hendo is not a make or break fight for either fighter's future with Strikeforce. Even with a Henderson loss, he definitely wants to keep Henderson around. He's jazzed about Marloes Coenen vs. Miesha Tate being the first female title fight under the Zuffa banner. Coenen was a no-show at the Thursday press conference. Coker joked that he had no idea what happened calling it a "makeup issue or breakfast issue or wardrobe malfunction."

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/blog/cagewriter/post/Coker-video-Is-Overeem-ever-fighting-again-for-?urn=mma-wp5140

Antoni Hardonk Dan Hardy Lee Hasdell Musse Hasselvall

Tate grinds her way to women?s 135-pound title, finishing with a side choke

Miesha Tate wrestled with the boys in high school, so there's little mystery to her game. She wanted to get Marloes Coenen down, and down often.

After spending 10-plus minutes on her back, a warn down Coenen found herself in a nasty arm-triangle choke in the middle of the fourth round. Referee John McCarthy called a stop to things at 3:03 of the round giving the Strikeforce women's bantamweight title to Tate.

At just 24 years old, Tate (12-2) may be the future of the division, but the women's 135 class has another young lady in her mid-20's. Sarah Kaufman, 25, beat Tate back in 2009 on a Strikeforce Challengers card and will probably get the next crack at the title holder.

Tate's explained that her experience with the boys in high school was the genesis of this title run.

"It made me tough. It's a big, huge reason why I'm here today," said Tate, who wrestled in Olympia, Washington. "That toughness got me through that fight. Marloes is no joke."

Her recent path to the cage was far from easy.

"I had a good start to my training camp, a rough finish. That's what makes the heart of a champion, it's tough times. Tough times only make you tougher," said Tate.

Coenen (19-5) is a very solid fighter with good striking and submission skills, but her stiffness on the feet and lack of  side-to-side movement killed her chance of defending takedowns. She was too often a sitting duck for Tate, who was good on 5-of-6 takedown attempts.

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/blog/cagewriter/post/Tate-grinds-her-way-to-women-s-135-pound-title-?urn=mma-wp5198

Alistair Overeem Valentijn Overeem Shungo Oyama Fredson Paixao